Your comments to my muse are welcome - for instance - what could be assumed as an average speed of a boat drifting with a wind of 10mph? Lots of variable there?
Within the Search & Rescue (SAR) community this is a type of modelling which owes some of its routes to the recovery of downed airmen during WW2. A great deal of effort was made to determine the drift rates of different objects in the water and that is still something that is being fine tuned today.
The rate of speed of any drifting object is largely (but not exclusively) influenced by two things:
1. Leeway speed of the object - this is percentage of mean wind speed and is calculated downwind only, no divergence. This speed is obviously different on the size of the drifting object. So a fibreglass boat will typically drift at a different rate when compared to a proportionally similar wooden boat in the same conditions.
2. Total water current (TWC). Now this is
funky and whilst more commonly applied to the saltwater than freshwater because of tidal effect, it is actually relevant to large lochs and stillwaters - hugely relevant. Other than tide, TWC is influenced by many things - depth of water, continual effect of a wind from a constant direction (this is called 'fetch'), heat/cold. If you've heard of thermoclines and can imagine what stratification looks like then very loosely that is also how TWC can be perceived, the top layer of water can be moving at a very different rate (faster) compared to the rest.
The resulting drift direction and speed is a vector sum of the objects leeway speed and total water current. But we're not interested in the resulting drift direction here, the question was really one about drift speed and that is essentially determining the leeway rate of the object. If a person in the water has minimal leeway and a sailing boat has significant leeway then determining the percentage rate of wind speed for the type of craft you are in is almost entirely just 'taking a punt' - some call that an educated guess.
Sure, there are SAR graphs and tables that give an indicative/generic rate for different objects, but there's no hard and fast rule - too many variables. As a general rule of thumb, I have found that in freshwater if you allow 20% of the wind speed up to a force 4 and 30% above, you'll have a good baseline of the uncontrolled drift speed.
H